Until recently Japan and South Korea were the dominant markets. And while PON deployments continue in these two markets, the rate of deployments has slowed as these optical access markets mature.
Slightly more than 4 million PON optical line terminals (OLTs) ports, located in the central office, were shipped in Asia Pacific in 2011, of which China accounted for the majority. Worldwide OLT shipments for the same period totaled close to 4.5 million. The fact that in China the ratio of OLT to optical network terminal (ONT), the end terminal at the home or building, deployed is relatively low highlights that in the Chinese market the significant growth in PON end terminals is still to come.
The strength of the Chinese market has helped local system vendors Huawei, ZTE and Fiberhome become leading global PON players, accounting for over 85% of the OLTs sold globally in 2012, says Julie Kunstler, principal analayst, optical components at Ovum. Moreover, around 60% of fibre-to-the-x deployments in Europe, Middle East and Africa were supplied by the Chinese vendors. The strongest non-Chinese vendor is Alcatel-Lucent.
Ovum says that the State Grid China Corporation, the largest electric utility company in China, has begun to deploy EPON for their smart grid trial deployments. PON is preferred to wireless technology because of its perceived ability to secure the data. This raises the prospect of two separate PON lines going to each home. But it remains to be seen, says Kunstler, whether this happens or whether the telcos and utilities share the access network.
"After China the next region that will have meaningful numbers is Eastern Europe, followed by South and Central America and we have already seen it in places like Russia,” says Kunstler. Indeed FTTx deployments in Eastern Europe already exceed those in Western Europe.
EPON and GPON
In China both Ethernet PON(EPON) and Gigabit PON (GPON) are being deployed. Ovum estimates that in 2011, 65% of equipment shipments were EPON while GPON represented 35% GPON in China.
China Telecom was the first of the large operators in China to deploy PON and began with EPON. Ovum is now seeing deployments of GPON and in the 3rd quarter of 2012, GPON OLT deployments have overtaken EPON.
China Mobile, not a landline operator, started deployments later and chose GPON. But these GPON deployments are on top of EPON, says Kunstler: "EPON is still heavily deployed by China Telecom, while China Mobile is doing GPON but it is a much smaller player." Moreover, Chinese PON vendors also supplying OLTs that support EPON and GPON, allowing local decisions to be made as to which PON technology is used.
One trend that is impacting the traditional PON optical transceiver market is the growing use of board-based PON optical sub-assemblies (BOSAs). Such PON optics dispenses with the traditional traditional optical module form factor in the interest of trimming costs.
“A number of the larger, established ODMs [original design manufacturers] have begun to ship BOSA-based PON CPEs,” says Kunstler.
10 Gigabit PON
Ovum says that there has been very few deployments of next generation 10G EPON and XG-PON, the 10 Gigabit version of GPON.
"There have been small amounts of 10G [EPON] in China," says Kunstler. "We are talking hundreds or thousands, not the tens of thousands [of units]."
One reason for this is the relative high cost of 10 Gigabit PON which is still in its infancy. Another is the growing shift to deploy fibre-to-the-home (FTTh) versus fibre-to-the-building deployments in China. 10 Gigabit PON makes more sense in multi-dwelling units where the incoming signal is split between apartments. Moving to 10G EPON boosts the incoming bandwidth by 10x while XG-PON would increase the bandwidth by 4x. "The need for 10 Gig for multi-dwelling units is not as strong as originally thought," says Kunstler.
It is a chicken-and-egg issue with 10G PON, says Kunstler. The price of 10G optics would go down if there was more demand, and if there was more demand, the optical vendors would work on bringing down cost. "10G GPON will happen but will take longer," says Kunstler, with volumes starting to ramp from 2014.
However, Ovum thinks that a stronger market application for 10G PON will be for supporting wireless backhaul. The market research company is seeing early deployments of PON for wireless backhaul especially for small cell sites (e.g. picocells). Small cells are typically deployed in urban areas which is where FTTx is deployed. It is too early to know the market forecast for this application but PON will join the list of communications technologies supporting wireless backhaul.
Challenges
Despite the huge expected growth in deployments, driven by China, challenges remain for PON optical transceiver and chip vendors.
The margins on optics and PON silicon continue to be squeezed. ODMs using BOSAs are putting pricing pressure on PON transceiver costs while the vertical integration strategy of system vendors such as Huawei, which also develops some of its own components squeezes, out various independent players. Huawei has its own silicon arm called HiSilicon and its activities in PONhas impacted the chip opportunity of the PON merchant suppliers.
"Depending upon who the customer is, depending upon the pricing, depending on the features and the functions, Huawei will make the decision whether they are using HiSilicon or whether they are using merchant silicon from an independent vendor, for example," says Kunstler.
There has been consolidation in the PON chip space as well as several new players. For example, Broadcom acquired Teknouvs and Broadlight while Atheros acquired Opulan and Atheros was then acquired by Qualcomm. Marvell acquired a very small start-up and is now competing with Atheros and Broadcom.
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